The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
<20
$18K Volume
6%
20–23
$12.3K Volume
76%
24–27
$10.1K Volume
23%
28–31
$2.2K Volume
2%
32–35
$4.7K Volume
1%
36–39
$1.5K Volume
1%
40+
$1.9K Volume
4%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
The current front-runner is 20–23 at 75%, ahead of 24–27 at 21%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
Traders currently imply a 75% chance for 20–23. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the How many Democratic House members not running in 2026 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Aug 2026 (7 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $50.7K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade How many Democratic House members not running in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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