This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AI
· Tech
· Claude 5
Claude 5 released by…?
June 30, 2026
$489.9K Volume
36%
September 30, 2026
$78.8K Volume
68%
Resolved 8
February 28, 2026
$1M Volume
No
February 14, 2026
$353.4K Volume
No
March 15, 2026
No
December 31, 2025
$52.1K Volume
No
February 6
$163.6K Volume
No
March 31, 2026
No
April 30, 2026
$1.3M Volume
No
May 31, 2026
$600.1K Volume
No
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