This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Global Temp
· Weather
· Science
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC
$56 Volume
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$77 Volume
6%
<1.10ºC
$70 Volume
6%
1.25–1.29ºC
$578 Volume
5%
1.20–1.24ºC
$747 Volume
4%
>1.29ºC
$499 Volume
1%
About This Market
Similar Markets
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2
Yes 61¢No 39¢
1
Yes 29¢No 71¢
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC
Yes 97¢No 3¢
<1.10ºC
Yes 2¢No 98¢
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest
Yes 99¢No 1¢
3rd hottest
Yes 1¢No 99¢
2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest
Yes 78¢No 22¢
3rd hottest
Yes 13¢No 87¢
