This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 versus the data points available for all other Junes on record.
Note: If June 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Global Temp
· Science
· Weather
2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest
$4.1K Volume
74%
3rd hottest
$4.2K Volume
6%
4th or lower
$2.7K Volume
5%
1st hottest
$26.7K Volume
4%
About This Market
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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2
Yes 61¢No 39¢
1
Yes 29¢No 71¢
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC
Yes 97¢No 3¢
<1.10ºC
Yes 2¢No 98¢
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC
Yes 45¢No 55¢
1.10–1.14ºC
Yes 30¢No 70¢
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest
Yes 99¢No 1¢
3rd hottest
Yes 1¢No 99¢
