This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Science
· Earthquakes
· Weather
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
≤3
$62 Volume
3%
5
$54 Volume
5%
7
$61 Volume
15%
9
$61 Volume
21%
4
$54 Volume
3%
6
$54 Volume
8%
8
$54 Volume
9%
>9
$61 Volume
8%
About This Market
Similar Markets

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
Yes 18¢No 82¢
September 30
Yes 13¢No 87¢

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
4
Yes 43¢No 57¢
≤3
Yes 27¢No 73¢

Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?
1900
Yes 74¢No 26¢
1950
Yes 9¢No 91¢

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2
Yes 57¢No 43¢
1
Yes 34¢No 66¢

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑2k
Yes 98¢No 2¢
↑3k
Yes 55¢No 45¢

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
0
Yes 78¢No 22¢
1
Yes 22¢No 78¢

April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC
Yes 58¢No 42¢
1.10–1.14ºC
Yes 31¢No 69¢

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
2.0T+
Yes 58¢No 42¢
1.8T–2.0T
Yes 13¢No 87¢