This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Science
· Weather
· Earthquakes
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
≤3
$68.3K Volume
1%
5
$20.6K Volume
1%
7
$7.8K Volume
1%
9
$7.5K Volume
1%
4
$20.1K Volume
1%
6
$7.6K Volume
99%
8
$8.4K Volume
1%
>9
$19.2K Volume
1%
About This Market
Similar Markets

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
Yes 16¢No 84¢
September 30
Yes 9¢No 91¢

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC
Yes 79¢No 21¢
1.15–1.19ºC
Yes 10¢No 90¢

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest
Yes 93¢No 7¢
1st hottest
Yes 4¢No 96¢

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Yes 83¢No 17¢
Yes 12¢No 88¢

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
2.0T+
Yes 71¢No 29¢
1.8T–2.0T
Yes 16¢No 84¢

Precipitation in Hong Kong in May?
240mm+
Yes 29¢No 71¢
220-230mm
Yes 24¢No 76¢