This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Iran
· traffic
· Oil
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
10-20
$85.9K Volume
21%
40-60
$63.4K Volume
3%
0-10
$272.4K Volume
63%
20-40
$70.7K Volume
6%
60+
$101.7K Volume
3%
About This Market
Similar Markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31
Yes 84¢No 16¢
July 31
Yes 71¢No 29¢

Iran ceasefire continues through...?
May 24
Yes 99¢No 1¢
May 25
Yes 99¢No 1¢

Iran closes its airspace by...?
June 30
Yes 33¢No 67¢
June 15
Yes 22¢No 78¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
Yes 81¢No 19¢
Yes 75¢No 25¢

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
Yes 34¢No 66¢
Yes 32¢No 68¢

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
Yes 62¢No 38¢
July 31
Yes 40¢No 60¢