Polymarket Bot Tutorial · Sura ya 21 kati ya 32
Polymarket binary Yes/No market bot strategies: standard event contracts, hard-capped 1x leverage, scale kupitia portfolio breadth, common mistakes (kuchase 0.99), na code skeleton.
Sura hii inafunika nini
Binary (Yes/No) markets ni foundation ya Polymarket. Strategies nyingi zinaishi hapa. Sura hii inafunika leverage cap, 0.99-price trap inayowakamata new builders, na breadth-not-size pattern ambayo production bots zinaconverge kwayo.
- Ni nini binary markets zinacover
- 1x leverage cap (na jinsi ya kuscale around it)
- Common mistake: kuchase 0.99 prices
- Portfolio breadth kama effective leverage
- Risk per market vs portfolio
- Code: scan binary markets na weka sized buys
Ni nini binary markets zinacover
Binary markets ni foundation ya Polymarket: single yes/no question na outcome tokens mbili. "Je, Trump atashinda 2024 election?" ni binary; "Nani atashinda 2024 election?" na candidates 5 ni NegRisk (sura ya 11).
Outcome tokens mbili (YES na NO) kwenye binary market zinajumlika hadi 1.0 minus small spread tax. Unaweza kununua upande wowote; pande zote zina order book yao. Pricing ni symmetric - kununua YES kwa 0.40 ni equivalent ya kuuza NO kwa 0.60 katika expected payoff.
Non-tournament markets nyingi kwenye Polymarket ni binary: weather questions, single-event political outcomes, individual sports games, single price-target crypto questions. Bot pattern ni sawa katika nyingi.
1x leverage cap (na jinsi ya kuscale around it)
Polymarket binaries ni 1x leverage: unatumia $40 kununua shares 100 kwa 0.40; max payout ni $100. Hakuna margin na hakuna liquidation. Capital efficiency ni chini kuliko perp futures (sura ya 24) ambapo 2-25x inapatikana.
Kuscale around 1x cap inamaanisha ofuli: (1) kudeploy capital zaidi katika markets - diversify badala ya kuleverage, (2) kucycling capital kupitia resolving markets - capital inafrees up kwenye kila resolution na inarotate kwa next, (3) kutumia NegRisk markets ambapo sum-to-1 arb inaweza kuzalisha effective synthetic leverage.
Right framing kwa binary strategy: low-leverage, high-breadth. Positions 50 ndogo katika markets 50 ni typical mature bot profile, sio positions 5 kubwa kwenye markets 5.
Common mistake: kuchase 0.99 prices
Failure ya kawaida zaidi ya binary-bot: kununua near-resolution heavy favorite kwa 0.99, ukitarajia easy 1c payout itakaporesolve YES.
Math: kwa 0.99, unalipa 99c kushinda 1c. Failure rate ya 1% (1 katika 100 markets), kila inakucost 99c, inafuta 99 successful 1c wins. Risk-reward ratio ni brutal kwa extreme.
Capacity pia ni problem. Book kwa 0.99 ni thin; kuweka meaningful size kunawalk price juu hadi 0.995 au juu, ikiero already-thin edge.
Kaa nje ya markets zilizopriced > 0.92 isipokuwa una specific strategy designed kwa tail-yield arb profile. Binary bots wengi hawapaswi kamwe kununua juu ya 0.85.
Portfolio breadth kama effective leverage
Huwezi kuleverage individual positions lakini unaweza kuleverage variance characteristics ya portfolio kwa kushikilia bets nyingi uncorrelated simultaneously.
Positions 50 kwa $20 kila ni $1,000 in play. Ikiwa win rate ni 55% kwenye +3c/-4c economics, expected daily PnL ni (0.55 × 3 − 0.45 × 4) × 50 × $0.20 = $1.50 expected, na bounded variance. Expected return sawa, drawdown ya chini sana, vs single $1,000 position.
Constraint: positions lazima ziwe genuinely uncorrelated. NFL favorites 50 katika single weekend sio independent bets 50; ni largely one weather-and-favorite bet correlated katika games. Diversify katika sport, event type, time horizon.
Risk per market vs portfolio
Risk caps mbili, zote zinahitajika.
- Per-market: max $X per market bila kujali edge. Caps catastrophic single-market loss. Common value: $25-100 per market.
- Portfolio: max total capital deployed wakati wowote. Caps total drawdown katika uncorrelated bad days. Common value: 50-70% ya wallet balance.
Per-market cap ndio important zaidi kwa sababu inabound blast radius ya single bug yoyote au edge-disappears event. Portfolio cap ni sanity check; na 50+ positions, law of large numbers kawaida inakuweka ndani ya bounds hata bila.
Caps zote zinapaswa kuenforced katika code, sio katika kichwa. Bot bila enforced caps hatimaye itapata configuration ambapo inadeploy 90% ya capital katika single market na kuipoteza.
Code: scan binary markets na weka sized buys
Reference: scan top-volume binary markets, filter kwa valid setups, weka sized FOK buys.
def scan_and_buy():
events = gamma_top_events(limit=50, active=True, closed=False)
for ev in events:
for m in ev.get("markets", []):
if m.get("negRisk"): continue # binaries only
outs = json.loads(m["outcomes"])
prices = [float(p) for p in json.loads(m["outcomePrices"])]
for i, out_name in enumerate(outs):
if not setup_qualifies(m, i, prices[i]): continue
tok = json.loads(m["clobTokenIds"])[i]
size = compute_size(m, prices[i])
if size < 5: continue
place_fok(tok, "BUY", prices[i] + 0.02, size, neg_risk=False)
def setup_qualifies(m, idx, price):
return 0.10 <= price <= 0.85 # avoid extremes
setup_qualifies function ndio ambapo strategy yako inaishi. Wrapper ni plumbing tu.
