America's World Cup begins June 12 at SoFi Stadium: USA vs Paraguay. Whether the President of the United States will be in the building is - literally - a coin flip:
"I wouldn't pay it either"
Asked this week about the eye-watering ticket prices for the SoFi opener, Trump said he would "certainly like to be there - but I wouldn't pay it either, to be honest with you." The quote landed inside an awkward storyline for the man who chairs the White House World Cup task force and has made the tournament a showcase of his relationship with FIFA president Gianni Infantino: days before kickoff, the USA's opening match is still not sold out. For a president famously attentive to crowd sizes, a half-empty bowl on global television is its own kind of market risk.
The quieter problem: who can actually come?
The administration's travel bans collide directly with a tournament that invites the world. The bans exempt competing teams - that is how Iran's squad got visas - but fans from banned countries are mostly locked out, and immigration-enforcement worries have weighed on ticket demand in several host cities. The hosts are selling a global festival under a closed-door policy, and the unsold seats at SoFi are partly that contradiction, priced.
The host-nation race: Mexico over USA
Here is the market verdict that should sting in U.S. soccer circles. In the furthest-advancing host market, traders put Mexico clearly ahead - 45% to the USA's 32%, with Canada at 26%:
Mexico open the tournament against South Africa at the Azteca - the first stadium ever to host three World Cup openers - with momentum and a home crowd. The USMNT under Mauricio Pochettino has battled inconsistent form, even as the coach insists the objective is "to go all the way." The outright market is just as blunt: Mexico 1.2%, USA 1.1%, Canada 0.4%.
The Trump-markets ecosystem
The attendance market is the fun one, but it sits inside a bigger picture: a tournament whose security, visas, crowd optics and even team participation (see Iran) all run through one administration. Every presidential statement is now a tradeable event - which is exactly why this World Cup may be the most prediction-market-friendly sporting event ever staged.
Track all host-nation and special markets on our World Cup 2026 hub, or trade the Trump attendance market on Polymarket.
Prices as of June 10, 2026.
