Polymarket Bot Tutorial · Sura ya 11 kati ya 32

Jinsi NegRisk multi-outcome markets zinavyofanya kazi kwenye Polymarket: sum-to-1 mechanics, negRisk flag katika CLOB orders, kwa nini YES legs katika NegRisk hazibadiliki, na execution best practices.

Na Harley Young, mwandishi mkuu wa Polymarkets.co.il. Marekebisho ya mwisho: Mei 2026.

Sura hii inafunika nini

NegRisk markets ni mechanism ya Polymarket kwa mutually exclusive multi-outcome events - 2024 election candidates, Premier League winner, tournament brackets. Bots wengi wanashindwa kuwa-handle kwa usahihi katika first try kwa sababu order placement inahitaji flag inayodropped silently ikiwa imekosekana. Sura hii inafunika mechanics na production code path.

  • Ni nini NegRisk inamaanisha (mutually exclusive Yes legs)
  • Kwa nini YES totals zinakaa karibu na 1 USD
  • neg_risk parameter katika order placement
  • Hedging kwenye NegRisk legs
  • Wakati NegRisk arb inafanya kazi (na wakati haifanyi)
  • Resolution edge cases
  • Code: weka NegRisk order

Ni nini NegRisk inamaanisha (mutually exclusive Yes legs)

NegRisk (kifupi cha "negative risk") ni mechanism ya Polymarket kwa events zenye multiple mutually exclusive outcomes - moja tu inaweza kuresolve YES. 2024 Presidential Election ilikuwa event moja na NegRisk: Trump-YES position na Harris-YES position haziwezi zote kuipa pay out.

Chini ya hood: single NegRisk event ina parent question_id moja na N child markets, kila moja na YES/NO yake. Exchange inaforce sum-to-1 kwenye YES legs kwenye resolution - exactly moja inaresolve kwa 1.0 na zilizobaki kwa 0.0.

Kutoka perspective ya bot, YES leg ya kila outcome inatrade kama token yake mwenyewe, na book yake na price. negRisk flag katika order placement (chini) inaroute trade kwa NegRisk-specific exchange contract; kuikosa inatuma kwa standard CTF exchange na silently inashindwa kusettle correctly.

Kwa nini YES totals zinakaa karibu na 1 USD

Arbitrageurs continuously wanashikilia sum ya YES prices kwenye NegRisk legs zote ≈ 1.0. Ikiwa Trump-YES iko 0.55 na Harris-YES iko 0.40 na hakuna competitive candidates wengine, missing 0.05 ni takriban implied probability ya "outcome yoyote nyingine." Wakati missing slice inaeexceed implied tail probability, arb opportunity inakuwepo: nunua YES legs zote proportionally, sum hadi chini ya 1.0, lock difference.

Kivitendo arb ni competitive - visible discount kawaida ni cents 1-2 kwenye liquid events, imeenda ndani ya dakika za opening. Arb pia ina liquidity-bound: unaweza kulock $1k ya discount lakini sio $20k.

Bots wengi hawafanyi NegRisk arb; wanatrade individual legs na wanahitaji kuheshimu negRisk flag kwa execution correctness.

neg_risk parameter katika order placement

Katika CLOB v2 SDKs, order placement inachukua flags object na boolean negRisk. Value lazima imatch na market type:

// Node (CLOB v2)
await client.createAndPostOrder(
  { tokenID, price: 0.45, size: 10, side: Side.BUY },
  { tickSize: '0.01', negRisk: true },   // <-- TRUE for NegRisk
  OrderType.FOK
);

Flag pia ni parameter katika daemon op signature production bots wengi wanatumia:

{ op: 'buy', tokenID, price, size, neg_risk: true, order_type: 'FOK' }

Source of truth: market.negRisk kutoka Gamma API. Daima soma; usihardcode. BTC-up/down market ni negRisk: false (binary); tournament-winner market ni negRisk: true (multi-outcome). Kuvuka wires kunaweka orders kwa wrong exchange na kunazalisha transfer failures kwenye settlement.

Hedging kwenye NegRisk legs

Ikiwa unashikilia Trump-YES kwa 0.50 na unataka ku-hedge dhidi ya Trump loss, options mbili zinakuwepo ndani ya NegRisk.

Nunua competing NO leg (mfano Harris-NO kwa 0.45). Hii inalipa ikiwa Harris atapoteza, ambayo inajumuisha Trump ushinde. Asymmetric - payoff ikiwa Trump anashinda lakini worthless ikiwa Trump anapoteza kwa third candidate.

Nunua competing YES legs zote proportionally. Ikiwa portfolio yako imefully balanced kwenye NegRisk legs, exposure yako imehedged: exactly moja itaipa pay. Hii ni synthetic-cash position.

Hedging instrument ambayo HAIFANYI kazi kama unavyotarajia: NO leg kwenye existing market yako. Trump-NO ni correlated na other YES legs lakini sio kabisa - ikiwa resolution ni "Other" Trump-YES yako na Trump-NO yako zote zinaenda kwa 0. NegRisk legs sio pure binaries.

Wakati NegRisk arb inafanya kazi (na wakati haifanyi)

NegRisk arb ya "sum hadi chini ya 1.0" inafanya kazi wakati conditions tatu zinashikilia.

  1. Legs zote ni liquid: kila leg unayohitaji kununua ina angalau $1k ya depth kwenye price unayohitaji. Arb inahitaji kuhit books nyingi simultaneously; leg moja ya illiquid inavunja trade nzima.
  2. Spread iko tight enough: cumulative spread-tax kwenye legs zote lazima iwe chini ya discount. Legs tano kwa 0.5c spread kila moja ni 2.5c ya cost; ikiwa discount ni 1.5c, arb ni negative.
  3. Unaweza kushikilia hadi resolution: NegRisk arb ni settlement arb. Unapokea payout wakati parent event inaresolve; ikiwa hiyo ni miezi 6 mbele, capital yako imefungwa.

Kwa 95% ya bots, NegRisk arb sio strategy. Strategies zilizobaki zinatrade individual legs na negRisk flag inakuwepo tu kuhakikisha order inaroute correctly.

Resolution edge cases

Edge cases mbili za kuzingatia unaposhikilia NegRisk positions kupitia resolution.

"None of the above" outcomes: baadhi ya NegRisk events zinajumuisha explicit "Other" au "None of the above" leg. Ikiwa actual answer haimatch na named leg yoyote, hii ni mshindi. Bots ambazo hazimodel explicit Other leg wakati mwingine zinaitreat kama degenerate case na kuipoteza payout.

Disputed resolutions: NegRisk resolution inapita kupitia UMA kama market nyingine yoyote. Ikiwa imedisputed, market inaweza kukaa unresolved kwa masaa 24-72. Wakati wa window hii, front-end inaweza kuonyesha "resolved" wakati on-chain payouts bado hazijawekwa. Kusoma payoutNumerators kwenye CTF contract ni njia salama tu ya kuthibitisha.

Code: weka NegRisk order

Full Node example inayoweka NegRisk YES leg buy.

import { ClobClient, Side, OrderType } from "@polymarket/clob-client-v2";
import { Wallet } from "ethers";

const c = new ClobClient({
  host: "https://clob.polymarket.com", chain: 137,
  signer: new Wallet(process.env.PRIVATE_KEY),
  creds: { key: K, secret: S, passphrase: P },
  signatureType: 2,
  funderAddress: process.env.POLY_FUNDER,
});

// market.negRisk === true (verified via Gamma earlier)
const resp = await c.createAndPostOrder(
  { tokenID: "<YES_TOKEN_ID>", price: 0.42, size: 25, side: Side.BUY },
  { tickSize: "0.01", negRisk: true },
  OrderType.FOK
);
console.log(resp.status, resp.orderID);

Bug ya kawaida zaidi kwa builders wapya: kuomit negRisk: true kwenye NegRisk market. Order inakubaliwa na CLOB lakini settlement inashindwa. Daima soma market.negRisk kutoka Gamma na uipasse; usitegemee kukisia kutoka question title.

Maswali yanayoulizwa mara kwa mara

Ni nini NegRisk market kwenye Polymarket?
Multi-outcome market ambapo YES legs ni mutually exclusive (moja tu inaweza kuresolve YES). Sum ya prices zote za YES inakaa karibu na 1 USD kwa sababu outcome moja exactly inashinda. Mifano: "2026 NBA Champion" (team moja inashinda), "Next Fed chair" (mtu mmoja).
Je, ninahitaji kuweka flag katika order kutrade NegRisk?
Ndio. Order requests kwa NegRisk markets lazima zijumuishe neg_risk: true (Python: pass kwa OrderArgs; Node: pass katika CreateOrderOptions). Kusahau flag inarejea katika rejected order au, mbaya zaidi, order iliyowekwa kwenye wrong order book. Tulihit bug hii exact katika production - commit 06deaef katika trader history yetu.
Je, ninaweza kuarbitrage NegRisk legs zinazo sum chini ya 1?
Ndio - ikiwa YES legs zote zinajumlika hadi chini ya 1.00 net ya fees, kununua kila leg kunalock guaranteed profit. Arbitrage ni real lakini extremely rare na inasnipped ndani ya sekunde na bots za haraka zaidi. Treat kama curiosity, sio strategy.
Je, NegRisk market inaresolved vipi?
Sawa na UMA optimistic oracle process kama Polymarket market nyingine yoyote. Winning leg inalipa 1 USD per share, losing legs zote zinalipa 0. Resolution kawaida inasettle NegRisk event yote kwa wakati mmoja.
Je, NegRisk fees ni tofauti na binary markets?
Fee schedule sawa na binary - 0% maker, 0.75-1.80% taker per category. Maker rebate pia inatumika. Tofauti pekee ya kivitendo ni una N order books za kushughulikia badala ya 1.
Je, ninaweza kuhedge YES position kwa kununua NegRisk legs nyingine?
Ndio - hii ni NegRisk-specific hedge. Ikiwa uko long leg moja na unataka kulock current PnL, nunua legs nyingine proportionally. Net cost inapaswa kuwa (1 - YES leg price yako), modulo fees. Hatupendekezi kama primary strategy kwa sababu fees kawaida zinakula hedge edge.