Polymarket News Arbitrage: Beating the Market on Headlines
News arbitrage on Polymarket: how to beat the market on headlines, source feeds (RSS/Twitter/AP), latency budgets, false-positive filters, and when news edge dies into the market price.
News arbitrage on Polymarket: how to beat the market on headlines, source feeds (RSS/Twitter/AP), latency budgets, false-positive filters, and when news edge dies into the market price.
By Harley Young, lead writer at Polymarkets.co.il. Last reviewed: May 2026.
What this chapter covers
This is chapter 14 of our 32-part series on building a Polymarket trading bot. We cover the topic in depth across the sections below. Body content for each section is being written and rolled out chapter-by-chapter; FAQ answers and references are already complete and reflect production experience from running our own trader.
What information edge looks like
News sources: RSS, Twitter, AP, official feeds
Latency budget: read-to-trade in under 2 seconds
False-positive filters
When news edge dies
Code: poll news feed and place FOK on relevant markets
Risk: half-truths and walked-back headlines
What information edge looks like
This section is in active development. Want to be notified when it goes live? Contact us or watch the authors page.
News sources: RSS, Twitter, AP, official feeds
This section is in active development. Want to be notified when it goes live? Contact us or watch the authors page.
Latency budget: read-to-trade in under 2 seconds
This section is in active development. Want to be notified when it goes live? Contact us or watch the authors page.
False-positive filters
This section is in active development. Want to be notified when it goes live? Contact us or watch the authors page.
When news edge dies
This section is in active development. Want to be notified when it goes live? Contact us or watch the authors page.
Code: poll news feed and place FOK on relevant markets
This section is in active development. Want to be notified when it goes live? Contact us or watch the authors page.
Risk: half-truths and walked-back headlines
This section is in active development. Want to be notified when it goes live? Contact us or watch the authors page.
Frequently asked questions
Can a retail bot really beat the market on news?
Yes - but only if you have a fast, reliable news source and a low-latency execution path. Twitter (now X) was the gold standard until API restrictions; RSS from Reuters/AP/Bloomberg is the next best thing. The retail edge has shrunk as more bots compete; expect 200-1000ms total read-to-trade, not 50ms.
What news sources should I subscribe to?
RSS feeds from AP (apnews.com), Reuters (reuters.com), and BBC give you broad coverage. Polymarket-specific: the platforms own Twitter and Discord channels often pre-announce market changes. For specific topics: government press releases (Federal Reserve PDFs, CFTC, WHO).
How fast does my bot need to react to news?
For a retail edge: under 2 seconds from news appearing to your order being submitted. For HFT-tier edge (vs other bots): under 200ms. Most retail can compete in the 1-3 second window because most other retail bots are even slower or absent on certain feed types.
How do I avoid false-positive news triggers?
Match the news to the specific market with care. "Ceasefire" might appear in 100 contexts; only some matter for your specific market. Use keyword AND market-tag filters: keyword "ceasefire" AND market-tag "Israel-Hezbollah" before triggering. Even better - LLM-classify the news as relevant before trading.
What happens when news is later walked back?
Your position can flip from winning to losing in seconds. News-arb bots need a fast exit policy: if a follow-up source contradicts the headline within N minutes, immediately close the position even at a loss. Our rule: close at -3% to -5% if any follow-up reduces confidence in the original signal.
Is news arbitrage legal?
Trading on public news is legal everywhere we know of. Trading on material non-public information (insider tips, leaks before official release) is not. Stick to public sources and the trade is fine.
よくある質問
Can a retail bot really beat the market on news?
Yes - but only if you have a fast, reliable news source and a low-latency execution path. Twitter (now X) was the gold standard until API restrictions; RSS from Reuters/AP/Bloomberg is the next best thing. The retail edge has shrunk as more bots compete; expect 200-1000ms total read-to-trade, not 50ms.
What news sources should I subscribe to?
RSS feeds from AP (apnews.com), Reuters (reuters.com), and BBC give you broad coverage. Polymarket-specific: the platforms own Twitter and Discord channels often pre-announce market changes. For specific topics: government press releases (Federal Reserve PDFs, CFTC, WHO).
How fast does my bot need to react to news?
For a retail edge: under 2 seconds from news appearing to your order being submitted. For HFT-tier edge (vs other bots): under 200ms. Most retail can compete in the 1-3 second window because most other retail bots are even slower or absent on certain feed types.
How do I avoid false-positive news triggers?
Match the news to the specific market with care. "Ceasefire" might appear in 100 contexts; only some matter for your specific market. Use keyword AND market-tag filters: keyword "ceasefire" AND market-tag "Israel-Hezbollah" before triggering. Even better - LLM-classify the news as relevant before trading.
What happens when news is later walked back?
Your position can flip from winning to losing in seconds. News-arb bots need a fast exit policy: if a follow-up source contradicts the headline within N minutes, immediately close the position even at a loss. Our rule: close at -3% to -5% if any follow-up reduces confidence in the original signal.
Is news arbitrage legal?
Trading on public news is legal everywhere we know of. Trading on material non-public information (insider tips, leaks before official release) is not. Stick to public sources and the trade is fine.
