The United States headline Group D as co-hosts and market favorites, priced at 61% to win the group and 99% to advance, the safest progression odds of any team across these five groups. Mauricio Pochettino's side share the section with a talented Turkiye, while Australia and Paraguay fight over the longest odds and the threat of going home early.
United States: Home Favorites
The USA sit at 61% to win Group D and a near-certain 99% to advance. Home advantage, a deep player pool led by AC Milan's Christian Pulisic, and a relatively open draw all feed into a market that treats their progression as all but settled. Pochettino's task is to turn that base into a deep tournament run on home soil.
Turkiye: The Likely Runner-Up
Turkiye are priced at 32% to win the group and 80% to advance, and they top the second-place market at 43%, comfortably clear of the USA's own 21% second-place share. With Inter's Hakan Calhanoglu pulling the strings and Real Madrid teenager Arda Guler providing the spark, they are the side most likely to join the hosts in the knockout rounds.
Australia and Paraguay: Fighting to Survive
Australia, marshalled by veteran goalkeeper Mathew Ryan, sit at 44% to advance, just ahead of a Paraguay side featuring Brighton's Julio Enciso and Miguel Almiron at 39%. The last-place market is split almost evenly, Paraguay 42% and Australia 40%, so their June 26 meeting could be a straight shootout to avoid the bottom.
How the 48-Team Format Changes the Math
The expanded 48-team format reshapes the math here. The top two in each group qualify automatically and the eight best third-placed teams also advance to the Round of 32. That is why Turkiye sit at 80% to advance and why even Australia at 44% are not out of it. For the USA, the format simply removes any doubt: 99% to advance is as close to a lock as the group stage offers.
Key fixtures: Australia vs Turkiye on June 14 sets the tone for second place, and Paraguay vs Australia on June 26 may decide who goes home early.
Track every Group D market live on our World Cup 2026 hub, or trade these markets on Polymarket.
Odds reflect Polymarket prices as of June 13, 2026 and move with live trading.
