Switzerland enter Group B as the market's clear favorite at 59% to win the group and 96% to reach the knockout rounds, chasing a fifth straight World Cup after topping their UEFA qualifying group. Co-hosts Canada and a Bosnia and Herzegovina side built around 40-year-old talisman Edin Dzeko are locked in a real fight for second, while 2022 hosts Qatar carry the longest odds in the section.
Switzerland: The Group Favorite
Switzerland are priced at 59% to win Group B, and their 96% advance probability is the safest in the section. The highest-ranked side in the group, they qualified comfortably and pair a settled, experienced defense with enough quality going forward to control most of these matchups. The market treats their place in the next round as close to a formality.
Canada and Bosnia: The Race for Second
This is where the group is decided. Jesse Marsch's Canada, on home soil and boasting Bayern Munich's Alphonso Davies and Juventus striker Jonathan David, hold a 27% chance to win the group and an 87% advance probability. Bosnia and Herzegovina, back at a World Cup for the first time since 2014 and still leaning on the evergreen Dzeko for goals, sit at 12% to win but 72% to advance. The second-place market is almost a coin flip: Canada 37%, Bosnia 30%, with Switzerland at 27% if results break oddly.
Qatar: The Long Shot
Qatar, the 2022 host nation, are priced at just 2% to win the group and 22% to advance, and the market makes them 76% to finish last. Their opener against Switzerland on June 13 gives them only a 6.7% win probability. To progress they would need to upset at least one of the three sides ranked above them.
How the 48-Team Format Changes the Math
Why do Canada and Bosnia both show advance odds above 70% when only two teams qualify automatically? The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams, so the top two in every group go through and the eight best third-placed sides also reach the Round of 32. That safety net is why the market prices three Group B teams as more likely to advance than not, and it makes every head-to-head between Canada, Bosnia and Switzerland worth even more.
Key fixtures: Qatar open against Switzerland on June 13, and the Switzerland vs Canada meeting on June 24 should settle the order at the top.
Track every Group B market live on our World Cup 2026 hub, or trade these markets on Polymarket.
Odds reflect Polymarket prices as of June 13, 2026 and move with live trading.
