Polymarket Bot Tutorial · Sura ya 25 kati ya 32
Sports market bots kwenye Polymarket: NFL weekly games, NBA tag (745) microstructure, soccer (Premier League, Bundesliga, Champions League), tennis (864) - liquidity, edge sources, code patterns.
Sura hii inafunika nini
NFL, NBA, Soccer, na Tennis ni Polymarket largest sports volumes kwa category. Kila moja ina data availability, cadence, na edge profile yake. Sura hii inafunika league-specific bot patterns na tag IDs utakazochuja kwazo.
- NFL: weekly cadence, peak liquidity Sunday
- NBA (tag 745): in-game microstructure
- Soccer: international vs club leagues
- Tennis (tag 864): tournament cadence
- Edge sources zinazoishi
- Live data: ESPN, official APIs
- Sample bot: pre-game line catcher
NFL: weekly cadence, peak liquidity Sunday
NFL ina strongest weekly rhythm ya sport yoyote kwenye Polymarket. Markets zinafungua Tuesday baada ya games za prior week, line-shop inafanyika Wednesday-Friday, betting volume peaks Saturday-Sunday. Resolution typically Sunday night kwa early games, Monday night kwa late one.
Bot pattern: line-catcher Tuesday-Wednesday wakati opening line imesetwa, in-play Sunday wakati wa peak volume. Bots tofauti kwa kila window. Monday Night Football market mara nyingi ina thinner volume kuliko games nyingine - kuwa aware ina higher slippage risk kwenye small-size entries.
Volume peak ni Super Bowl: $50M+ trading katika SB markets wiki ya game. Hata $100 bot katika wiki hiyo ni irrelevant noise; market ni efficient kwa scale hiyo.
NBA (tag 745): in-game microstructure
NBA ni highest-frequency sport kwenye Polymarket - games 25-30 per week wakati wa regular season, 5-15 katika playoffs. Tag ID 745 inafilter kwa NBA-only events.
In-game microstructure inafanya kazi kwenye NBA kwa sababu: (1) ESPN inaupdate scoreboards kila ~10s, (2) games ni masaa 2.5 ya continuous action, (3) Polymarket books kwa major games zinakaa deep kupitia 4th quarter.
Strategy inayofanya kazi: jisajili kwa game WS book + ESPN feed, itikia kwa imbalance + score events katika sekunde 10-15. Strategies zisizofanya kazi: pre-game line catching (efficient ya kutosha kwamba retail haikamati mengi), late-game certainty arbitrage (0.99-trap territory).
Soccer: international vs club leagues
Soccer inabreak katika tiers tatu roughly kwenye Polymarket.
- Top European leagues (EPL tag 739, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A) - moderate volume, deep books kwenye big matches. Bot strategies similar kwa NBA.
- Champions League / Europa League (UCL tag 2186) - peak volume kwenye knockout stages. Books ni deepest kutoka round-of-16 onward.
- International / smaller leagues (Saudi Pro League, MLS, J-League) - thin books, large spreads. Generally sio bot territory.
Discrete scoring ya soccer (0-1 goals ni huge events) inaifanya tofauti na NBA continuous flow. Bot pattern kwa soccer ni: kuwa kwenye right side kabla goal kuiscored, exit haraka baada moja kufired.
Tennis (tag 864): tournament cadence
Tennis tag 864. ATP na WTA tours zinacheza miezi 11 ya mwaka na Grand Slams katika Jan (Australian Open), May-Jun (French Open), Jul (Wimbledon), na Aug-Sep (US Open). Volume inaconcentrate katika wiki hizo nne pamoja na Masters 1000 series.
Tennis ina cleanest in-play price ladders ya sport yoyote (sura ya 15). Mid-match prices zinafuata predictable curves keyed kwa set-and-break states. Bot na tennis-specific price ladder model inaweza kudetect mispricing in real time.
Quiet windows: kati ya Grand Slams, wiki na ATP 250 / ATP 500 tournaments tu, books ni thin sana. Pause bot au shift kwa sport tofauti wakati huu.
Edge sources zinazoishi
Katika sports zote nne, edges zinazoishi juu ya muda ni:
- Pre-game line shop dhidi ya sharper venue number (Pinnacle, Betfair). Wakati Polymarket inadisagree na sharp book kwa > 3c, fade Polymarket.
- In-play overreaction kwa single play (interception, injury, momentum shift). Subiri sekunde 30-60 baada ya play, fade ikiwa market iliovershoot.
- Late-game heavy favorites kwenye 0.85-0.92 na risk-managed sizing. Chini ya 0.85 = real risk; juu ya 0.92 = 0.99 trap.
Edges zisizoishi: pure technical analysis kwenye prices, sentiment scraping kutoka Twitter, calendar-based seasonal effects.
Live data: ESPN, official APIs
Data source matrix kwa sports nne.
| Sport | Primary | Backup | Update cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | ESPN scoreboard | NFL.com feed | ~10s wakati wa play |
| NBA | ESPN scoreboard | stats.nba.com | ~10s wakati wa play |
| Soccer (EPL/UCL) | ESPN scoreboard | SofaScore | ~15-30s |
| Tennis (ATP/WTA) | ESPN scoreboard | tennis.com live | ~30s (point-level) |
ESPN ni free na reliable kwa zote nne. Kwa sub-10s updates lipa kwa specialized feed (StatsPerform, GeniusSports) - lakini marginal latency improvement rarely justifies cost kwa retail.
Sample bot: pre-game line catcher
Reference: pre-game line-catcher pseudocode.
def line_catcher():
# Find games starting in the next 2-12 hours
events = gamma_events(tag_id=745, hours_ahead=12)
for ev in events:
for m in ev["markets"]:
polymarket_prob = float(json.loads(m["outcomePrices"])[0])
sharp_prob = fetch_pinnacle_implied(ev["slug"]) # 3rd-party feed
if sharp_prob - polymarket_prob > 0.04:
# Polymarket has the YES side cheap vs sharp
tok = json.loads(m["clobTokenIds"])[0]
place_fok(tok, "BUY", polymarket_prob + 0.01, size=10)
elif polymarket_prob - sharp_prob > 0.04:
# Polymarket has the NO side cheap vs sharp
tok = json.loads(m["clobTokenIds"])[1]
place_fok(tok, "BUY", 1 - polymarket_prob + 0.01, size=10)Caveats: Pinnacle / Betfair APIs zinahitaji accounts; sio free. Bila sharp reference, line-catching inareduce kwa opinion vs opinion, ambayo sio bot territory.
