Spain enter Group H as the strongest group favorite in the tournament, priced at 78% to win the section and 99% to advance. The reigning European champions and overall World Cup favorites are clear of an experienced Uruguay, which leaves Saudi Arabia and World Cup debutants Cabo Verde competing for the longest odds and the threat of finishing bottom.
Spain: The Dominant Favorite
Spain are priced at 78% to win Group H, by far the most dominant group-winner odds across these sections, and a near-certain 99% to advance. With Ballon d'Or winner Rodri anchoring midfield, Pedri orchestrating, and teenage star Lamine Yamal making his World Cup debut, Luis de la Fuente's Euro 2024 winners are the team the market is most confident about anywhere in the group stage.
Uruguay: Comfortable in Second
Uruguay hold a 19% chance to win the group but a strong 90% advance probability, and they own the second-place market at 56%. Built around Real Madrid's Federico Valverde, Rodrigo Bentancur and Jose Maria Gimenez, the two-time champions look set to join Spain in the knockout rounds with room to spare.
Saudi Arabia and Cabo Verde: The Long Shots
Saudi Arabia, who famously beat Argentina at Qatar 2022 and still lean on captain Salem Al-Dawsari, sit at 36% to advance. Debutants Cabo Verde, led by record scorer Ryan Mendes in their first ever finals, are at 31%. The last-place market is close, Cabo Verde 50% and Saudi Arabia 43%, so their June 27 head-to-head could decide who finishes bottom.
How the 48-Team Format Changes the Math
In the expanded 48-team format the top two per group qualify automatically, with the eight best third-placed teams also advancing. With Spain and Uruguay priced at 99% and 90% to go through, the live question in Group H is really about third place and last place: Saudi Arabia at 36% and Cabo Verde at 31% are effectively chasing a long-shot third-place route while trying to avoid the bottom of the table.
Key fixtures: Spain vs Cabo Verde and Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay both land on June 15, with Cabo Verde vs Saudi Arabia on June 27 potentially deciding last place.
Track every Group H market live on our World Cup 2026 hub, or trade these markets on Polymarket.
Odds reflect Polymarket prices as of June 13, 2026 and move with live trading.
