The Netherlands lead Group F as market favorites at 53% to win the section and 95% to advance. Behind them, Japan and a Sweden side carrying one of the tournament's most dangerous strike partnerships are locked in a close fight for the runner-up spot, while a resilient Tunisia will need an upset to keep their knockout hopes alive.
Netherlands: The Frontrunners
The Netherlands are priced at 53% to win Group F and 95% to advance, the clear top seed. With Liverpool's Cody Gakpo among the attacking options, their blend of technical midfield control and depth makes them the side the market trusts most to navigate a competitive group without slipping up.
Japan and Sweden: The Second-Place Duel
Japan, structured and high-energy with Real Sociedad's Takefusa Kubo and a settled core, hold a 27% chance to win the group and an 84% advance probability. Sweden counter with the firepower of Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak plus Anthony Elanga and teenager Lucas Bergvall, sitting at 14% to win but 61% to advance. The second-place market favors Japan at 33% over Sweden at 26%, and their June 25 meeting could decide the order.
Tunisia: The Outsider
Tunisia, organized and hard to break down with Eintracht Frankfurt's Ellyes Skhiri set to captain, are priced at 4.2% to win the group and 38% to advance. Their opener against Sweden on June 15 is their most winnable match at 21%, and a positive result there would immediately reshape the second-place race.
How the 48-Team Format Changes the Math
The 2026 tournament's 48-team format gives second and even third place real value. The top two from each group qualify, and the eight best third-placed sides join them in the Round of 32. That explains why Sweden carry a 61% advance probability on just a 14% group-win chance, and why a single Tunisia win could swing the entire third-place picture in a tightly matched section.
Key fixtures: Netherlands vs Japan on June 14 is an early statement game, while Sweden vs Tunisia on June 15 shapes the chase for second.
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Track every Group F market live on our World Cup 2026 hub, or trade these markets on Polymarket.
Odds reflect Polymarket prices as of June 13, 2026 and move with live trading.
