What the market asks
This פולימרקט prediction market asks which levels the US dollar to Korean won exchange rate (USD/KRW) will reach before the end of 2026. Each outcome is its own Yes or No question about one threshold, from a stronger won at 1,000 to a much weaker won at 2,000 per dollar.
Upward outcomes (1,600, 1,650, 1,700, 1,800 and 2,000) ask whether the dollar will climb to that many won. Downward outcomes (1,300, 1,200, 1,100 and 1,000) ask whether the won will strengthen to that level. Several outcomes can resolve Yes, because they are separate questions.
Background
The won had a volatile 2026. Korean media reported that it weakened past 1,550 per dollar around the start of July, the weakest close in Seoul since March 2009, amid a strong dollar and foreign selling of Korean stocks. In the following months the currency recovered sharply, and by late October 2026 the onshore rate was closing in the 1,320 to 1,340 range.
The exchange rate matters a great deal in Korea: it shapes import prices and inflation, the earnings of exporters such as chipmakers and carmakers, and the Bank of Korea's policy choices. The central bank raised its base rate in July and August 2026 and then held at 3.00% in October, citing inflation risks that included high oil prices.
What traders watch
- Bank of Korea rate decisions, including the November 26, 2026 meeting, compared with the US Federal Reserve.
- Foreign investor flows in and out of the KOSPI.
- Exporters' dollar sales and Korea's current account data.
- Oil prices, which raise Korea's import bill.
- Comments from the government's currency authorities and the Bank of Korea on market stability.
How the market resolves
For an upward threshold, an outcome resolves Yes if the Investing.com high price ("H") for any USD/KRW hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price; otherwise No. Data for a candle is final once the next candle appears on the chart, and the last trading day of a week is final once the market closes that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
The market resolves as soon as any finalized hourly high reaches the listed price, or once the final hourly candle of the period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a date counts as that date. The only source is the "H" figure at the top of the USD/KRW Streaming Chart on Investing.com. The supplied rules text spells out the upward case; check each downward outcome's own rules on the market page.
How to read the prices
A price of 0.08 on the 1,600 outcome means the market gives about an 8% chance that the dollar reaches 1,600 won in 2026. At the time of writing (November 2026) the most likely outcome in the market was the won strengthening to 1,300, priced near 0.595. Prices are not forecasts by any bank.
