What the market asks
This פולימרקט prediction market asks whether South Korea's KOSPI index will set a new all-time high, above 9,385.59, before the end of 2027. It is a single Yes or No question about whether the benchmark index climbs back past its June 2026 peak.
Yes shares pay out if the KOSPI records an intraday or closing value above that level during a regular Korea Exchange session before the deadline. No shares pay out if it does not.
Because an intraday value is enough, the index only needs to trade above the level once during a regular session; it does not have to close there.
Background
The KOSPI had a historic run in the first half of 2026, driven above all by the chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which together accounted for more than half of the index's market value. The index closed above 9,000 for the first time on June 18, 2026, and broke through 9,300 the next morning. According to the market rules, the official all-time intraday high published by the Korea Exchange, 9,385.59, was set on June 19, 2026.
The index has since fallen well below that peak. Korean media reported heavy foreign selling and steep daily drops in early November 2026, with the KOSPI trading around the 5,000 level, before a sharp rebound of more than 4% on November 10. A return to the record would therefore require a very large recovery, which is why the deadline runs to the end of 2027.
For scale, the KOSPI first crossed 4,000 in October 2025, so the 2026 peak came after an exceptionally fast rise.
What traders watch
- Memory chip prices and earnings at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
- Foreign investor net buying or selling on the Korea Exchange.
- US technology stocks and global demand linked to artificial intelligence.
- Bank of Korea interest rate moves and the won to dollar exchange rate.
- Government policy on the stock market and corporate governance reform.
How the market resolves
The market resolves Yes if the KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) records an intraday or close value above 9,385.59, its official all-time intraday high as published by the Korea Exchange and set on June 19, 2026, at any point between the creation of the market and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM KST. Otherwise it resolves No.
Only index values from the regular trading session of the Korea Exchange count. Values implied by futures, ETFs, options or other derivatives do not qualify. Index values are used exactly as published, without rounding. The primary resolution source is Yahoo Finance (^KS11), though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read the prices
A price of 0.225 means the market gives about a 22.5% chance of a new record before 2028. At the time of writing (November 2026) the Yes price stood near that level. Prices are not investment advice or analyst targets.
