📊 STORYLINE
No Deal, No Ceasefire: US-Iran Market Resolves No After $280M Bet on Diplomatic Silence
A brief military flare-up, unilateral de-escalation, and deliberate face-saving by both governments left Polymarket's strict ceasefire criteria unmet by June 30, 2026.
Peak 0¢Trough 0¢Volume $280.1MResolved 2026-06-21 · No
Key moments
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0 +0¢Iran attacks US assets; US responds with direct limited strikes
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0 +0¢Yes odds peak near 42% as both sides halt direct fire
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0 +0¢Iranian FM rejects negotiations, calls US halt a retreat
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0 +0¢Blinken confirms no formal ceasefire talks underway with Tehran
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0 +0¢FT: Oman and Qatar mediation offers declined by both sides
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0 +0¢Market at under 1% Yes with nine days left; $280M volume
