US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.

“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.